When Mexicans elected a new president, they also chose their next negotiator-in-chief, who will face tough decisions with the United States on issues ranging from immigration and trade to fentanyl trafficking.
Mexicans voted overwhelmingly for Claudia Sheinbaum, awarding her over 58% of the vote and a significant mandate to lead Latin America’s second-largest economy and the United States’ primary trading partner.
When President Andrés Manuel López Obrador steps down and Sheinbaum assumes office on October 1, she’ll take charge of a nation grappling with slow economic growth and violence tied to organized crime. Additionally, she’ll encounter a strained relationship with the United States. Despite deep economic ties, U.S.-Mexico relations have been challenged by shared issues of global migration and drug trafficking. “The two countries have been suffering from an incredible fumbling of the ball in dealing with each other,” said Tony Payan, director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico at Rice University’s Baker Institute. “I think the two countries need to come back to the table.” While Americans enjoy “taco Tuesday” and vacations in Cancun, the complexities of the U.S.-Mexico relationship often get overshadowed by marketing and political rhetoric. Mexico’s influence in the U.S. is pervasive.
It’s seen in the Mexico-made car parts sustaining U.S. autoworkers in Detroit, the windmill blades sent to U.S. clean energy plants, the pacemakers saving American patients, and the $15 avocado toast on menus across the country.
U.S. exports to Mexico include Midwest-grown grains and natural gas from Texas. Mexico, in turn, sends fruits and vegetables north, helping to keep U.S. grocery costs down amid volatile inflation.
Last year, Mexico became the United States’ largest trading partner, surpassing China, with nearly $800 billion in annual trade, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. However, the relationship is fraught with tension. Mexico serves as the transit country for hundreds of thousands of U.S.-bound migrants, leading to repeated humanitarian crises at the U.S. border. It’s also the source of the fentanyl that kills tens of thousands of Americans annually.
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), negotiated during the Trump administration, is set for renegotiation in 2026. U.S. business leaders worry that reopening the deal could create uncertainty and harm both economies.
“Mexico is now the U.S.’s main trading partner,” said Jennifer Apperti, director of the Texas-Mexico Center at Southern Methodist University. “Reopening negotiations on recently settled agreements would be, honestly, not the best use of time. And in business, time is of the essence.”
Domingo Garcia, president of the U.S.-based League of United Latin American Citizens, expressed optimism about working with the Sheinbaum administration. He described Sheinbaum as “open, engaging, and willing to listen and share her thoughts on moving forward. Mexicans are vital to the United States’ economic future and our hemisphere’s overall robust vibrancy. At the same time, we must consider environmental and scientific initiatives for our well-being today and for future generations.”
With an estimated 60% turnout, Sunday’s vote was one of the largest elections in Mexico’s history, with nearly 100 million eligible voters. For the first time, Mexican citizens living in the United States could vote in person at 20 consulates, including one in Phoenix.
